According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in November 2025 (30 days) increased 1.47% YoY, but decreased 2.82% MoM. Starting in November, aluminum gradually transitioned from peak consumption season to off-season, downstream operating rates showed a downward trend, and the proportion of liquid aluminum declined. The industry's proportion of liquid aluminum fell 0.5 percentage points MoM to 77.3%, a smaller drop than expected at the start of the month. Main reasons: 1) Production capacity of supporting processing plants near some aluminum smelters increased further, raising the proportion of liquid aluminum; 2) In the second half of November, aluminum prices retreated from highs, aluminum billet processing fees strengthened, and billet plants showed good willingness to produce. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum data, domestic aluminum casting ingot volume in November decreased 13.4% YoY and decreased 0.78% MoM to around 828,000 mt.
Capacity changes: By the end of November, SMM statistics showed domestic existing aluminum capacity was about 45.87 million mt, and domestic operating aluminum capacity was about 44.225 million mt.
Production forecast: Entering December 2025, operating aluminum capacity is expected to increase slightly MoM. Some new aluminum projects are expected to commence commissioning from the end of 2025 to early 2026; related commissioning progress needs attention. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, market feedback suggests downstream demand is marginally weakening, and enterprises' expectations for casting ingot have strengthened. However, it is reported that in December, some scrap utilization enterprises, facing difficulties in procuring aluminum scrap or high purchase prices, are choosing to procure more liquid aluminum, which is expected to push the proportion of liquid aluminum against the trend. Additionally, production capacity of supporting processing plants near individual smelters is coming online, expected to boost the proportion. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is forecast to drop 0.7 percentage points to 76.6%. Subsequent attention should be paid to substitution related to primary aluminum replacing scrap aluminum, and changes in the operating rates of downstream processing plants.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]
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